Goon's Frozen Four review

Much like Sioux7 my brackets for the NCAA Hockey Tourney were totally busted as I got only one out of four brackets right, usually I am able to pick two of the four correctly.

Just for the record, my Frozen Four brackets included Michigan, Miami, Boston College and North Dakota.

I confess as a college hockey fan I am not all that excited with this season’s Frozen Four field, to be honest with you it bores me. This Frozen Four could end up being as bad as the 2010 Frozen Four that was at Four Field where Boston College ran through the field like a hot knife through butter. I could see the same thing happening again this season.

Unfortunately, the two best teams are in the same bracket and the attractive match-up is Minnesota and Boston College; other than that, nothing really jumps out at me in this season’s Frozen Four. In one bracket we have what I would consider a snooze feast between Union College and Ferris State, and there are others that agree with me.

 

Game time for the first game between Union College (26-7-7) and Ferris State (25-11-5) is 3:30 p.m. Central Standard Time Thursday.  The game is on ESPNU (DirecTV208 and Dish Network148) 

My prediction is that the Ferris State University Bulldogs, who are lead by head hockey coach Bob Daniels, who incidentally was awarded the 2012 Spencer Penrose Award, will end Union’s magical season in a boring non-eventful game if you’re still awake by the end of the game you will see Ferris State win in a trap feast 2-1 game.

Both teams Union and Ferris State have never been in the Frozen Four so one of these two teams is going to make the championship game of the Frozen Four for the first time in their team’s history. 

Fun and interesting facts about Ferris State and Union: The Bulldogs and Dutchman's rosters contain  NO NHL Draft picks, there is not a single one on either team, that is almost unheard of in today’s college hockey world. Just for the record, Union college has , Boston College has 9 and Minnesota has 17 NHL draft Choices.  

In the evening title it’s the Boston College Eagles (31-10-1) vs. the Minnesota Golden Gophers (28-13-1) at 7:00 p.m. Central Standard Time Thursday. The game is on ESPN2 ( DirecTV and 209 Dish Network 144)

This season’s Frozen Four prohibitive favorite, Boston College is a team that has three solid forward lines that could be most teams first line on any team. The Gophers are also loaded through the forward lines as well. Here are the lines that both teams used in their last games.

Boston College Forward Lines 

Barry Almeida (22g-16—38pts) – Bill Arnold (17g-17a—34pts) – Steven Whitney (13g-22a—35pts)

Chris Kreider (22g-21a—41pts) – Kevin Hayes 6g-20a—26tps) – Destry Straight (3g-6a—9pts)

Johnn Gaudreau (20g-21a—41pts) – Pat Mullane (10g-26a—36pts) – Paul Carey (15g-12a—27pts) 

Minnesota Gophers Forward Lines

Kyle Rau (18g-25a—43pts) – Nick Bjugstad 25g-17a—42pts) – Zach Budish  (12g-23a—35)

Sam Warning (6g-9a—15pts) – Erik Haula (20g-28a—48pts) – Jake Hansen (15g-22a—37pts) 

Nate Condon (11g-19a—30tps) – Travis Boyd (1g-8-a—9pts) – Taylor Matson (8g-15a—23pts) 

Goalies

Boston College goalie Parker Milner, 27-5-0, 1.70 goals against average and a .935 save percentage. It would be an understatement to say that Milner has been on fire as of late, during the Eagles' current 17-game winning streak, Milner has been flawless and sports a 17-0-0 record and an impressive 1.11 goals-against average with a mind popping .960 save percentage.

Minnesota goalie Kent Patterson, 28-13-1, 2.23 goals against average and a .911 save percentage. I have seen Gopher fans make the argument that Patterson has been the has been the MVP for the Golden Gophers.

As Sioux7 laid out in his blog post, both teams are similar statistically and I do expect that special teams will have a major factor in this game’s outcome.

Minnesota ranks
1st in team offense with a 3.67 avg/gm
8th in team defense with a 2.21 avg/gam
5th on the Power Play at 23.24% (43/185)
36th on the Penalty Kill at 81.0% (149/184)

Boston College ranks
6th in team offense with a 3.50 avg/gm
2nd in team defense with a 2.07 avg/gam
11th on the Power Play at 21.55% (39/181)
3rd on the Penalty Kill at 88.0% (162/184)

That being said, I am going to stick with my earlier prediction that made a week ago, I do expect to eat a little crow if my prediction is wrong.  That being said, I have seen a lot of good teams get absolutely steam rolled by the Boston College Eagles during the NCAA tourney.

 I also predict that the Boston College Eagles will win their programs fifth NCAA Title by a 6-3 score against the Ferris State Bulldogs.

Related articles

• Frozen Four Match-Ups (by Sioux 7) (ndgoon.blogspot.com)
• Redwing77's Frozen Four Opinion Piece! (ndgoon.blogspot.com)
• My prediction for the Frozen Four (ndgoon.blogspot.com)

Frozen Four Match-Ups (by Sioux 7)

It looks like a really blew my frozen four picks from two weeks ago. I had picked Union, Maine, Michigan, and North Dakota to make it, well at least I got one right. How about the fact the we have four teams from four different conferences this year, last year it was just the WCHA (UMD, UND) and CCHA (UM, ND) in the frozen four.

Here we are, Tampa Florida, none the less; not exactly what I call hockey country. Anyway here are the team’s backgrounds and information as well as my best guesses as to the winners. .

SEMI-FINAL #1
#3 Union (26-7-7)
Union got to the Frozen Four by beating Michigan State and UMass-Lowell in the East Regional (Bridgeport, CT) two weeks ago.

The Dutchmen are 6-0-0 on neutral sites and 10-5-3 on the road this season. Union is on a seven game win streak that helped them capture the ECAC hockey crown. The Dutchmen have only lost two games in the 2012 calendar year (Brown and Cornell).

This is Union’s first trip to the Frozen Four, they are 2-1 all time in the NCAA tournament. They lost to Minnesota-Duluth in their first ever NCAA game last year, and UMD went on to win the title last year.

Union ranks
4th in team offense with a 3.55 avg/gm
1st in team defense with a 1.80 avg/gam
4th on the Power Play at 24.34% (46/189)
10th on the Penalty Kill at 84.8% (128/151)


#6 Ferris State (25-11-5)
The Bulldogs got to this point by beating Denver and Cornell in the Midwest Regional (Green Bay, WI) two weeks ago.

The Bulldogs are 0-1-0 on neutral ice and 8-6-3 on the road this season. FSU has won three of its last four games.

This is Ferris State’s first trip to the Frozen Four; they are 3-1 all time in the NCAA tournament, 2-0 this year and 1-1 in 2003, losing to Minnesota that year.

Ferris State ranks
21st in team offense with a 2.93 avg/gm
5st in team defense with a 2.17 avg/gam
25th on the Power Play at 19.17% (37/193)
6th on the Penalty Kill at 85.8% (157/183)


UNION versus FERRIS STATE
The all time series between Union and FSU is all Dutchmen, they are 4-0-0, and those games were all played in 2006 and 2007, in Big Rapids and Schenectady respectively.

Going with the numbers on these teams it favors Union, going with that logic I'm going with the Dutchmen to advance to the Final. UNION WINS


SEMI-FINAL #2

#1 Boston College (31-10-1)
The Eagles got to Tampa by beating Air Force and Minnesota-Duluth in the Northeast Regional (Worcester, MA) two weeks ago.

The Eagles are 8-1-0 on neutral ice and are 10-6-0 on the road this season. The Eagle come into Tampa on a 17-game winning streak, their last loss was on January 21st to Maine.

This is Boston College’s 23rd trip to the Frozen Four; they have won the NCAA Hockey Title 4 times – 1949, 2001, 2008, 2010. The Eagles are owners of a 43-38 all-time NCAA tourney record.

Boston College ranks
6th in team offense with a 3.50 avg/gm
2nd in team defense with a 2.07 avg/gam
11th on the Power Play at 21.55% (39/181)
3rd on the Penalty Kill at 88.0% (162/184)


#8 Minnesota (28-13-1)
The Gopher got to the Frozen Four by beating Boston University and North Dakota in the West Regional (St. Paul, MN) two weeks ago.

The Gophers are 2-1-0 on neutral ice and are 9-6-1 on the road this season, and have now two in a row and five of their last six games.

This is Minnesota’s 20th trip to the Frozen Four; they have won the NCAA Hockey Title 5 times – 1974, 1976, 1979, 2002, 2003. The Gophers are owners of a 52-33 all-time NCAA tourney record.

Minnesota ranks
1st in team offense with a 3.67 avg/gm
8th in team defense with a 2.21 avg/gam
5th on the Power Play at 23.24% (43/185)
36th on the Penalty Kill at 81.0% (149/184)


BOSTON COLLEGE versus MINNESOTA
The all time series between Eagles and Gophers is at 27 games with Minnesota leading 14-11-2. They have met nine of those times in the playoffs with the Eagles holding a 5-4 edge. These teams are 1-1-0 in neutral-site games, one in 1954 (14-1 Gophers) and 2008 (5-2 Eagles).

Last year the semi-finals were similar in that one game was between teams that did have all the hardware (UMD v ND) and the other was two storied progams (UMich v UND). Could this game be like that one? Where the favorite team plays well and gets dumped by a hot goalie? Can Patterson stone wall the Eagles? I think he can, but will he? EAGLES WIN


CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
If, and that's a big if, my semi-final predictions are correct, that would be a Union and BC final. I'm going for the new kids on the block.
DUTCHMEN National Champions

Related articles

• My prediction for the Frozen Four (ndgoon.blogspot.com)
• A quick look at the regionals... Goon's Pontifications.... (ndgoon.blogspot.com)
• NCAA Hockey Bracket 2012, Boston College Vs. Minnesota-Duluth: Eagles Headed To Frozen Four (sbnation.com)

Redwing77's Frozen Four Opinion Piece!

My bracket is destroyed. Only BC's entry into the Frozen Four was accurate in my bracket. Kudos to those of you whose bracket isn't complete garbage.

Here are the matchups:

Ferris State vs. Union
Minnesota vs. Boston College

Before I break down each game and give my (worthless) predictions, I wish to opine thusly: I do not like these matchups. I think there is plenty of glamor and appeal among the general college hockey population for the Minny/BC tilt, but there isn't much appeal for the Union/Ferris State tilt (other than the humanistic approach). I would have loved to have seen:

Minnesota vs. Union
Ferris State vs. Boston College

I think this brings everyone to both games. Sure, it might be the ESPN-ization of the brackets (giving the best opportunity to see the two biggest schools face off for the title) but I think it has the most appeal.

But that's not how the brackets work so here's the breakdown:

Union vs. Ferris State:

Union is the #1 seed in this game. Ferris isn't. Ferris State is a true Cinderella story. Union's story is good too. Both are in uncharted territory. Either team wins and it will be either team's first Frozen Four NC game. Despite my disdain towards the matchup, these two teams seem to match up well talent wise. It will be a good game. Union's goaltender is a Hobey finalist. I think he's proven that he's worthy.

Prediction: I got burned for not going by the rankings so I will go with the rankings tonight. My heart is with Ferris state but.... I predict Union wins 3-2.

Minnesota vs. BC:

This would be a GREAT NC matchup... but it is just a semifinal matchup. BC has won 17 straight which is something (if you believe in that... as it didn't work well for UND). Minnesota is rolling right now, stunning opponents with novel concepts not seen in recent years (such as Team Defense). Minnesota scored 12 goals in St. Paul and only gave up what... 5?

BC comes in having scored 6 goals in the regional and giving up... ZERO GOALS.

This game MIGHT require OT. And this game could go either way.

Prediction: 17 game streak... 0 goals allowed in the NCAAs thus far. Hard to go against BC. I think BC wins 2-1. It's going to be a great game. However, I will say this: Whoever wins THIS game, wins the National Championship so... as you see below, all you have to do is replace BC with Minny if Minny wins this game and my prediction remains the same otherwise.

NC Game:

BC vs. Union:

Union does a great job just getting here.... and leaves proud but quietly.

BC does its best impression of the 2002? Minnesota NC team when it played UNH for the title.

Prediction: BC: 5 Union: 1

Bracketbuster #1 (Redwing77)

Ok, the NCAAs just begun and well.... some upsets are already happening.

Ferris State vs. Denver:

I chose: Denver
Result? 2-1 Ferris State

I thought Denver would come out firing but apparently Ferris State knew how to handle it. Ferris State wins only their second NCAA tourney game EVER. However, in the end, I think this game was at least a good one. The others? Not so much.

Union vs. Michigan State

I chose: MSU
Result? 3-1 Union

Union has played few challenging opponents. Michigan State has played barely well enough to get in. I guess it stands to reason then, since neither team is clear cut as a favorite, that you'd go with seeding, but I just do not believe that the ECACHL deserves as much respect as the East Coast media gives it. If Union had to play a team like Western Michigan in the opening round, I'm not so sure they win. That being said, in the last 5 years, the ECACHL is 5-0 in the opening round of the NCAA Tourney. And they are 0-5 in the second round. I'd say that's going to continue but...

UMass Lowell vs. Miami

I chose: Miami
Result? 4-3 UMass in OT

Miami gave up a Powerplay, shorthanded, and 2 5 on 5 goals. They looked absolutely PATHETIC for the first 45 minutes of the game. They keep trying to make pretty plays to score goals while UMass keeps trying to score goals merely by jumping on Miami mistakes and just throwing the puck on net. Knapp has looked pathetic. I cannot believe that Blasi is kept him in. Goal #1 was the only goal Knapp wasn't at least partially at fault for. Goal #2 was on a short handed breakaway that beat him 5 hole. 5 hole goals coming head on is just a sign of poor anticipation. It should be the hardest goal in hockey to get unless the goaltender is moving laterally. Goal #3 was plain and simple out of position crap goal bad goaltending. Yeah, it was 2 on 1 but it beat him short side when Knapp had plenty of time to get into position. He correctly anticipated the pass but he just did not cover the post.

Luckily for Miami, they ended up tying the game. They went to OT and then.... Knapp rears his ugly head again! Wetmore scores a goal that NEVER EVER EVER would have gone in had Knapp held the post. He ends up making the initial save off his right side and bounces back to Wetmore who taps it through Knapp and into the net. It was a squibbler and barely got in but it got in. That means, ladies and gentlemen, that 2 of UMass' 4 goals were WEAK, 1 was a fluke, and the other was perhaps somewhat unavoidable.

Tough for Miami to lose in the first round but.... any half-assed decent playoff team worth its salt would have beaten Miami anyways. Can't expect to suck for 45 minutes, be given a 5 minute major at the end of regulation and 1:26 of it in OT, fail to score on it, and still expect to win the game. Ok, ok, to be fair, Miami did a good job in the regulation side of the major powerplay and Doug Carr saved UMass' bacon but every other Miami Powerplay up til then was a Clinic in awful special teams.

Goon may disagree but I believe this marks the downturn of Miami. They've peaked. Sure, they'll get their share of talent, but I think this current squad has ended its stretch run of post season dominance. They'll have to regroup (or reload as it may) and see if they can catch another great run. They're not going to get anywhere with this current squad without some serious infusion of talent.

UMass and Union in the Final? SNOOOOOOOOORE!!!!!! I wonder where this Regional ranks in the list of "worst regionals in NCAA Tourney history?"

If UND being a #2 seed would have gotten them into this regional, they should have thrown the WCHA title game.

Michigan vs. Cornell
I predicted: Michigan
Result? 3-2 Cornell in OT

This game was pretty good... if you enjoyed special teams. We had one ejection (contact to the head major on Cornell) and a barrel full of minors. I'm not sure what Shafer had to say postgame but it probably won't be much because Cornell won. Had they lost though....

I'm not sure what to think about this game overall. Cornell plays a GOD AWFUL style of hockey (one of the major reasons why I despised the Wild under Risebrough/Lemaire). Sure, the trap works, but it makes for a pisspoor hockey game to watch... which I think everyone knew because either everyone sat on the Camera side of the arena or the arena was MAYBE 40% capacity. It just wasn't fun. Michigan, if you consider scoring chances, had the more dominant game but Cornell put the game away in OT.

Rarely do I root for Cinderella stories such as UMass or Ferris State but... I'll be rooting for them tomorrow because I don't believe the trap has any place in bigtime hockey and I wouldn't want boring hockey in Tampa.

So... let's hope no more surprises!

Redwing77's NCAA Tourney Bracket Pick'em Part Two

Here's the final installment. I'm not going to predict the Frozen Four outcomes until the teams have been set.

Midwest Regional:

This is about as difficult as the West. It features Michigan, Ferris State, Denver, and Cornell. Since I haven't seen 3 of the 4 teams in this bracket play, I'm going to be brief.

Ferris State vs. DU:

Ferris State is a Cinderella story. They came out of nowhere to choke away the CCHA tourney by losing in the first round.

DU is a tough team mad as all get out after getting embarrassed vs. UND in the WCHA Tourney championship.

Prediction: Feel good Ferris State. You made the tourney. Bad news: DU destroys you.

Michigan vs. Cornell:

SNOOOOOOOOOOOZEFEST. Cornell historically plays a boring style of hockey. Michigan is cold and calculating. If Shawn Hunwick shows up like he did vs. UND a year ago, Michigan wins easy. If he lets in weak goals like he did vs. WMU, then oops.

Prediction: Michigan wins.

Regional Final: Michigan vs. DU. I think DU stuns the #1 seed in this Regional.

East Regional:

This is the easiest bracket in the tourney by a LONG SHOT. If you could believe in a team like Union, it would be easy to think they'll walk into the Frozen Four however....

Union vs. Michigan State:

Union is a team that hasn't really played many quality teams. They've played a few ranked opponents. They've played nonconference ranked opponents in DU, CC, WMU, Michigan, and Merrimack. Against those opponents, they have a 2-2-2 record. Their wins were against Merrimack and Michigan.

Michigan State is an interesting story in that they squeaked in by the hairs on their chinny chin chin. If it was any other opponent I wouldn't give Michigan State a sniff at a win.

However....I'm not sold on either team doing anything, but since I have to pick a team...

Prediction: I predict upset city. Michigan State wins in OT. Union becomes the only #1 to fall in the first round.

Miami vs. Mass Lowell:

UMass is another Cinderella story. They've seemingly come out of nowhere. And that's where they're going in this NCAA tourney.

Miami: Been here done it before. Miami has been very inconsistent looking downright pathetic vs. WMU in the CCHA tourney. However, Blasi always watches his team drop one in their shorts before the NCAAs and well, things turn out alright.

Prediction: Miami wins.

Regional Final: I may not be sold on Union/MSU outcome but I am sold on this: If Miami beats UMass Lowell, they go to the Frozen Four.

I also predict that this Regional will be the most poorly attended.

Frozen Four Wrap Up:

Using my predictions: I think the final four teams will be BC, Minnesota, Miami, and DU.

Since I'm not sold on any teams but BC and Miami listed above, I'll wait until the Frozen Four is set to make my predictions.