NCHC Playoff First Round Preview and Predictions

The regular season is now over, and the playoff brackets are now set. Most of the seeding wasn't final until the last day of the regular season, however seeds 1 (North Dakota), 7 (Western Michigan), and 8 (Colorado College) were set last Friday when North Dakota took the Penrose Cup outright. The top four seeds in the NCHC have their quarterfinal best of three series at home against the bottom four seeds. This year the match-ups are 1 North Dakota vs. 8 Colorado College, 2 Miami vs. 7 Western Michigan, 3 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 6 St. Cloud State and 4 Denver vs. 5 Minnesota-Duluth. 

1 North Dakota vs. 8 Colorado College

These two teams met four times this season with North Dakota winning all four contests, one of which while in Colorado Springs by a 7-2 score and a Mark MacMillan hat trick. When CC came to Grand Forks for a second half series, the story was much different. In two very tightly contested battles, CC would be the thorn in UND's side, making it seem like it was a battle of top five teams in the country. UND would prevail on the weekend with a sweep, but maybe the most well earned sweep of the season. 

Who to Watch:

UND: With MacMillan out, probably for the rest of the season, Focus for the offense will go to Senior Michael Parks, who likes to spend most of his time behind the goal line, Junior highlight reel Drake Caggiula, and master playmaker Freshman Nick Schmaltz. However this is a roster that seems to have someone different step up each night and in the second half their top producer has been Senior defender Nick Mattson. Finally, you look to Hobey Baker finalist Zane McIntryre. Zane leads the country in wins with 25, tied with Michigan Tech goalie Jamie Phillips, is 8th in save percentage at .931 and 14th in goals against average at 1.99. 

CC: Junior center Cody Bradley is the only Tiger with 10 goals this season, and is also the only Tiger with over 20 points as well. The junior center has been the sole hope for offensive production for the season, but Senior forward Scott Wamsganz is on the 20 point threshold sitting at 19 points for the season. Never count out Sophomore defender Jacob Slavin for making some plays from the point either. Slavin is probably their best defenseman.

Who Wins?

UND should win the best of three series in two games Friday and Saturday, but I think one of these games will be within a goal or two and a very tight defensive battle. UND wins Friday 3-1 and Saturday 5-2, however if UND sits back any, which I don't think will happen, but if they do, look for CC to take advantage and try to force a third game this weekend. 

2 Miami vs. 7 Western Michigan

Miami took 11 out of a possible 12 points against the Broncos this season with one overtime tie and shootout victory when they went to Kalamazoo for a series during the second half. The series that took place in Oxford was not as tightly contested, especially during the Saturday night contest with Miami winning by a score of 5-2. 

Who to Watch:

Miami: Senior assist machine Austin Czarnik has 31 assists on the season for the RedHawks and a team leading 36 points.Junior Riley Barber shares the team lead in goals with Junior Sean Kuraly who both are at 17 goals for the season. With Seniors Cody Murphy and Blake Coleman both over the 10 goal mark for the season as well, you can't count those two out when it comes to scoring either. 

WMU: Although the season ended somewhere they didn't want it to, Sophomore Sheldon Dries and Junior Colton Hargrove both are tied for the team lead in points with 25. Senior Justin Kovacs is not far behind with 24 points this season with 18 of those being helpers. 

Who Wins?

I can't see this series ending any other way then a Miami sweep, but if you remember last year, the only home ice team to advance to the Frozen Faceoff last year was North Dakota. For that reason, I think this series goes the distance and WMU wins Friday 2-1 with Miami coming back with a Saturday win of 4-2 and Sunday 3-1.

3 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 6 St. Cloud State

This is the series that I am most looking forward to. With Omaha falling off late in the season to lose the number one spot to North Dakota, and St. Cloud being a thorn in everybodys side this season despite being below the 500 mark, this series has classic written all over it. With both teams getting sweeps this season on their home ice, and the late season sweep of Omaha in St. Cloud a couple weeks ago being the catalyst in Omaha falling in the standings, look for the Mavericks to come out guns a blazing and look to gain some revenge. 

Who to Watch:

UNO: Sophomore Austin Ortega set the NCAA record for game winning goals in a season last weekend when he netted his 11th game winner. He is the leader with 18 goals on the season and tied with fellow Sophomore Jake Guentzel with points at 33, the youth movement in Omaha is on. Three of the top five in points for the Mavericks are freshman, Jake Randolph, Tyler Vesel, and Avery Peterson. Also look for Sophomore Justin Parizek to be a threat to score some goals as well. 

SCSU: Junior Johnny Brodzinski and Junior Joey Benik lead this team who's power play is top 5 in the NCAA. The top power play unit has combined for over 70 points this season with the extra man, so look for the Huskies to take advantage of every man advantage they are able to get this weekend. 

Who Wins?

No question in my mind this one goes the distance. I am taking St. Cloud to take the series and get the "upset" over Omaha as they have been struggling as of late, who is 3-5-2 in their last 10 games. St. Cloud wins Friday 3-2, Omaha Wins Saturday 4-3, St. Cloud wins 2-0.

4 Denver vs. 5 Minnesota-Duluth

With the season series seeing two splits, this series should also be very tightly contested, possibly the tightest of the four series. Duluth does hold the biggest victory this season with a 6-1 victory, but that came in Duluth. Every other game had a two goal or less margin, which is how I expect this to turn out. 

Who to Watch:

Denver: Freshman Danton Heinen leads the team with an amazing 42 points this season and Sophomore Trevor Moore is close behind at 39 points. Moore is the team leader in goals this year at 19 goals on the season. However, you can't talk about Denver without talking about Senior defenseman Joey LaLeggia. His puck moving ability and willingness to take it up on the rush has him tagged as one of the top offensive-defensemen in the NCAA. 

UMD: The usual suspects Tony Cameranesi, Alex Iafallo and Austin Farley are at it again this season and are leading this team on the helper side of things. the three are all at just 8 goals on the season and look to Dominic Toninato who leads the Bulldogs at 16 goals followed by Justin Crandall who has 12. 

Who Wins?

This should be a very close series, but Denver comes out on top. Their firepower will be too much for this UMD team. Denver wins Friday 3-1 and Saturday 4-3.

NCHC Awards.

Tonight, the NCHC handed out their individual awards for the leagues most outstanding players and a coach of the year. There were a couple of surprising choices and I would have chosen some others different, but hey they can't make everyone happy.

First lets start with the NCHC Player of the Year, Josh Archibald. Archibald would lead the NCHC in goals with 23 and win the league scoring title with 32 points in 24 league games. The Pittsburgh Penguins draft pick also would record two hat tricks this season, one coming against North Dakota at the Ralph in UNO's 6-3 Saturday night victory over North Dakota. Along with Player of the Year, Archibald would also be named Forward of the Year for these same reasons. It's a shame UNO will not make the NCAA tournament because Archibald would be a lot of fun to watch leading his team towards the Frozen Four in Philly come April.

Also taking home two individual awards in this inaugural NCHC season would be Nic Dowd of St. Cloud State. The senior, and LA Kings prospect, would land him the Scholar Athlete of the Year and the league's top defensive forward honors. Dowd would finish sixth in league scoring with 25 points in 24 league games played. The SCSU forward would also finish at a +12 this season and block 19 shots during conference play.

Another player with double the fun for awards this year would be Denver defenseman Joey LaLeggia. He would earn himself Offensive Defenseman of the year and Defenseman of the year. He finished tied for the conference lead in goals scored by a defenseman with six and started off his season with a three game goal scoring streak. LaLeggia would finish the season with 13 points in conference play and would block 23 shots in 19 league games played out of 24 possible.

The Goalie of the Year honors went to Denver's Sam Brittain. He would lead the NCHC with an outstanding .931 save percentage and would claim two of his four shutouts in NCHC play, which would also lead all league goalies. Brittain was named goalie of the week a record six times this season and his 686 saves in league play would be an amazing 81 more saves then any other NCHC goalie would make.

This year's Rookie of the Year, and much deserving Rookie of the Year, was awarded to Colorado College defenseman Jacob Slavin. The Freshman would tie the league best in defenseman scoring with 19 points, and would rank third in all freshman scoring. He would also lead all defenseman with 14 assists, and that would also be good for second among all league freshman. A 2014 World Junior representative, Slavin would show that he is going to be a top blue liner in this conference in his next few years at CC.

Finally, the last major award was the Herb Brooks Coach of the Year. SCSU's Bob Motzko would win the award, leading St. Cloud to the very first Penrose Cup this year. The Huskies would earn 15 conference wins,six non conference wins, and were scoring just under four goals a game this season. Although the Huskies would have a slumpish run towards the end of the regular season, and get swept by Miami in the first round of playoffs, this SCSU team could very well see play in the Frozen Four once again this season, especially with the week off to rest, get healthy, and have some good practice time before the NCAA tournament begins next weekend.

Now for who missed out. The only big one in my mind that missed out is North Dakota defenseman Dillon Simpson. Simpson was a lot of peoples choice for defenseman of the year, especially since he rarely made a defensive error that would cost North Dakota. In last weekend's series, Simpson and his d partner Jordan Schmaltz would combine for 21 blocked shots in the three games. If there was anyone left out it is for sure the North Dakota senior captain.

So is this bulletin board Material?

Yesterday while I was on the tread mill Tim Braun aka the shirtless guy pinged me with this article from the Colorado Springs Gazette…  Tim took issue with something that the C.C. Tiger's beat writer Brian Gomez had put in a newspaper article that he had written this week. You can read the paragraph in question and see for yourself.   

So did the Colorado Spring Gazette offer up some bulletin board material?

It wouldn’t be that much of a stretch to assert CC (16-14-2, 13-12-1 Western Collegiate Hockey Association) no longer resides on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Its bubble may have burst in a 4-3 overtime defeat and a 5-2 trouncing over the weekend – setbacks that dropped CC to 21st in the PairWise rankings used for picking the 16 NCAA Tournament qualifiers. Now, all that’s left is a weekend home series against mediocre Michigan Tech.

Personally, I wouldn’t have written that throw away line, it’s not really needed for his article, but it’s his first amendment right. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up on the Huskies black board in the locker room… Honestly, I don’t really have a dog in this fight other than I was pinged by Tim on Twitter. It did peak my interest though.

For the most part I think that Brian Gomez is a fair and decent journalist and I don’t think he had any malicious intent to disrespect the Michigan Tec Huskies. I think Michigan Tech is a much improved hockey team and they should be applauded for their improvement.

I also think that the Huskies are going to be a tough draw for any team that faces them down the stretch and they could just show up at the Final Five. I am hoping and praying that I don’t have to watch them play a 2-3 game series against my favorite teams.

Shot Charts from 11/26 Tigers and Sioux game

From time to time I have read and heard fan comments about Aaron Dell being an over rated goalie or not worthy of the hype. If you look at the shot charts from Saturday night’s game you will see the Aaron Dell made some big saves and kept the Fighting Sioux in the game.

You will see that both goalies stopped some grade “A” opportunities down low from the slot. The Fighting Sioux defense also blocked 15 shots during Saturday night’s game.

The Fighting Sioux had to kill a 5 on 3 power play in the third period and Aaron Dell said that, “it [penalty kill] was huge, we have had a hard time with five on threes this year, and that was the biggest kill of the game, it was a huge momentum swing there.”

s/t @StatsOnCrack

How SIOUX-eep it is! (RW77)

Well, call me impressed!

We came into this series a defensive, low scoring team and we leave Thanksgiving weekend as a goal scoring not so defensive team. Ok, that's a bit harsh but...

This weekend we saw huge weekends from Danny Kristo, Derek Forbert, Corbin Knight, Brock Nelson, and Nick Mattson on the UND side.

Danny Kristo is something else. Brock Nelson is right behind him. Corbin Knight is pretty much unbeatable in the faceoff circle.

My 3 stars for tonight's game:

3rd Star: Corbin Knight
2nd Star: Danny Kristo
1st Star: Rylan Schwartz

My 3 stars for the weekend:

3rd Star: Brock Nelson
2nd Star: Danny Kristo
1st Star: Rylan Schwartz

May the Schwartz be with CC... until UND faces them again.

Yeah, by the end of the first period tonight, I was hoping that Rylan Schwartz's NHL team would sign him before the second period began... Now I look it up and... He's a free agent! It's JADEN who is the "star." Well.... Jaden did do a stellar job this weekend but Rylan... WOW. I think there's a team about 5 hours drive SE of Grand Forks that could use some more offense.... just sayin'.

To put it bluntly: I don't want any more of Rylan Schwartz.

Here are some more thoughts:

1. Again, the ice was crap tonight. The puck didn't sit well at all, skaters slipping and sliding without being touched, and more whiffs.

2. The officials were meh. UND finally benefitted from the refs. I felt at times, UND did definitely get away with a few. The refs didn't call everything, but I felt that there were times where CC was held by tighter regs than we were. In an unethical way, I'm happy we finally got the benefit of it. In an ethical manner, once again: I'll be happy to be rid of the WCHA officials.

3. O'Donnell was the unsung hero tonight. He SERIOUSLY looked GREAT out there. The only thing missing was a goal. His poise, patience, aggressiveness... I loved it all.

4. I noticed Gaarder but Hennessey had to tell me Pattyn and Panzarella were on the ice. I guess that's a good thing for Panzarella but we are seriously shallow in forward depth (but that's just beating a dead horse).

5. If Rylan Schwartz goes cold, CC is in trouble. This weekend, CC scored 9 goals. All but 3 were scored by Rylan Schwartz. He's fantastic and, if he continues lighting it up like this, will surely be the WCHA MVP. However, if he goes cold, they may be in the same trouble as UND.

6. Defensively, tonight's game was a much better game than last night's game (at least through the first half of the game)

7. Our Powerplay looks A LOT A LOT A LOT Better. I finally saw us moving the puck down low and trying to work the puck in close for the tap in. There were still a lot of perimeter bombs but we were now in the right position to use it and we didn't rely solely upon it.

8. Garbage Goals? THERE YOU ARE!!! Unlike last night, only one of our goals (Kristo's shortie) was of the non-garbage goal variety. Highlight reel goals are highlight reel goes because not every goal is a highlight reel goal. Games are won through garbage goals. We won this game because we owned the front of the CC net.

9. I'm not sure, but... I think we may be better in the faceoff circle now than we were with Vandevelde...and crew.

Hennessey suggests that this series might be the turning point for UND. Maybe it will be, but we won't know until later in the season. Even so, I do hope it is.

Shot charts from 11/25

If you look at the shot chart from the first period you will see that Fighting Sioux goalie Aaron Dell was under attack and had to make many saves from shot taken down low  in the slots.

s/t to stats on crack for the shot charts. After losing Sunday’s game to the Bemidji State Beavers, Fighting Sioux head coach Dave Hakstol talked about his team not getting to the dirty area to score goals. Fast forward to Friday night, the Fighting Sioux scored five of six goals from the slot.

Let’s not jump off the ledge just yet.

Image via WikipediaThis past week, I have been reading the various fan message boards to include fan comments. I’ve also been listening to the numerous podcasts around the college hockey world and the hockey pundits aren’t giving the Sioux much of a chance this weekend or for the rest of the season.  They are too young. There is no talent through the forward lines. The Fighting Sioux forwards are standing around watching Kristo make plays.

On one podcast, a self professed expert and fan of an unnamed team basically said the Sioux have shown him nothing this season and just aren’t very good, his blanket statement included the Fighting Sioux’s defensive unit.

When a hockey team loses 270+ points from their line up due to graduation and early defections it’s going to be noticeable on the ice in the early going of a hockey season.

I guess this self congratulatory and self professed expert missed the part where the Fighting Sioux have clamped it down on defense and have only given up nine goals in the last five games that is an average of 1.8 goals per game during that stretch; unfortunately the Sioux have gone 2-3-0.

In net for the Fighting Sioux, junior goalie Aaron Dell who had a rough start to the season has been in the zone as of late and has muscled the starting goaltender job away from senior goalie Brad Eidsness.

Most knowledgeable hockey fans know that hockey starts with a strong defensive team scheme.  Smart defense in your own end, generates offensive opportunities going the other way.

I guess this same expert, some how missed the part where the Fighting Sioux’s defense and goaltending held the mighty Golden Gophers to “five” goals for a weekend series and their All-American team “barely” got out with the sweep against the hapless Fighting Sioux at Mariucci Arena. But I digress.

More specifically, if you believe the hype and prattle the Fighting Sioux have little chance of doing anything this season and you can stick a fork in them because they are done.  I am not a math expert but if my count is right there are 21 regular season games left, if the Fighting Sioux can make their annual run at about a .600-.700 clip the Fighting Sioux should be right in the mix of things.

It’s easy to coach from the stands especially after a few beers

There has been a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking of the Fighting Sioux coaching staff, some of this criticism is very petty and almost hurtful; some of the criticism is deserved and well thought out.  

If you believe some of our anonymous fans that hide behind a screen name on the Internet, it would sound like the Fighting Sioux coaching staff is made up of a bunch of bumbling hacks that can’t coach a hockey team and are basically just lucky with the success they’ve had to date.

The same rumblings surface every time the Fighting Sioux face some adversity, the weekly FightingSioux.com chat blows up with comments of how Hakstol can’t win the big game when it counts the most.

Personally, I am not ready to write the Fighting Sioux’s eulogy just yet, there is a lot of hockey left to be played. There is also a lot of pride in that Fighting Sioux locker room and I expect the leaders of that team to take the bull by the horns and play Fighting Sioux hockey.

After Sundays 1-0 loss against the BSU Beavers; you could tell that the head coach of the Fighting Sioux head coach Dave Hakstol was not pleased with his team’s effort. Hakstol talked about his team not getting to dirty areas and how some of his players let their teammates down.

One game at a time

It starts with a good shift, and then couple of good shifts, a big hit in the corner or a goal off of a turnover. I know it’s cliché but Roman wasn’t built in a day. You can’t turn the season around in one game or series. I would be willing to bet, that from this point forward you will be some urgency in the Fighting Sioux game plan.

Speaking of historical statistics

The Fighting Sioux take on the Colorado College Tigers this weekend and historically the Fighting Sioux have had a lot of success against the Tigers. According to USCHO.COM, the Fighting Sioux have an all time record 135-76-10 (.633) against the Colorado College Tigers. Also the Sioux have an impressive 80-19-6 (.790) at home against the Tigers.

The Fighting Sioux are historically a second half team since Fighting Sioux head coach Dave Hakstol took over the coaching duties in 2004-05; the Fighting Sioux have an impressive and almost mind blowing record of 111-44-16 after Jan. 1. That means that under Hakstol the Fighting Sioux have been historically very hard to beat after the first of the year.  The $64,000.00 question is how will this team fare?

Year         Before                 After

2004-05   13-7-2  (.636)   12-8-3 (.587)

2005-06   12-7-1 (.625)    17-9-0 (.654)

2006-07   7-10-1 (.417)    17-4-4 (.760)

2007-08   8-6-1 (.567)       20-5-3 (.768)

2008-09   9-8-1 (.528)      15-7-3 (.660)

2009-10   9-6-3 (.583)      16-7-2 (.680)

2010-11   13-5-2 (.700)    19-4-1 (.813)

2011-12   4-7-1 (.375)          ?

Totals 75-56-12 (.566)      116-44-16 (.705)

 

Related articles

• Series Preview: Sioux vs. Tigers (insidehockey.com)
• Beavers End Streak, Beat Sioux 1-0 (insidehockey.com)
• WCHA Power Rankings - November 21 (insidehockey.com)

Sioux - Tigers Series Preview

The University of North Dakota Fighting Sioux entertain the Colorado College Tigers this weekend at Ralph Engelstad Arena game times; 7:37 PM CT Friday and 7:07 PM CT Saturday.

Since 2002-03 the Sioux have a 13-12-3 record against the Tigers.

The games will be on Fighting Sioux Sports Network 23 Midco, 617 FCS DirecTV.

Radio: The games can be heard at 96.1 the Fox.

Internet: Webcast from FightingSioux.com

Records and Rankings:

UND – 4-7-1 overall, 2-6-0 WCHA; unranked in both polls. The Fighting Sioux split with BSU last weekend 5-2 win, 1-0 loss.

C.C. – 7-2-0 overall, 5-2-0 WCHA, ranked fourth in both national polls, the Tigers swept Wisconsin last weekend 4-2, 4-1.

Players to Watch:

For the Fighting Sioux, junior forwards Danny Kristo 4g-8a—12pts and Corbin Knight 5g-7a—12pts are tied for the team lead in scoring. On the other side of the ice, for the C.C. Tigers the Schwartz brothers, Jaden Schwartz 5g-8a—13pts and Rylan Schwartz 7g-4a—11pts lead the Tigers in scoring.

Junior goalie Aaron Dell is the top goaltender for the Fighting Sioux. Dell has a 3-6-1 record with a 2.87 goals against average and a .887 save percentage.

The Tigers goalies Joe Howe 4-1-0 record with a 2.69 goals against average with a .906 save percentage has split time with Josh Thorimbert 3-1-0 record with a 2.42 goals against average with a .923 save percentage.

Key Numbers:

0 – The number of ties the Colorado College Tigers have at this point in the season.

2 – The number of losses that Colorado College Tiger have at this point in the season.

2 – The Colorado College Tigers power play is ranked second in the WCHA going 12/47.

2 – The Colorado College Tigers penalty kill is ranked second and have killed 34/40 penalties.

3 – The Fighting Sioux are ranked third on the penalty kill and have killed 42/51 penalties.

7 – The number of losses that the Sioux have so far this season.

8 – The Fighting Sioux power play is ranked eighth in the WCHA going 11/61.

9 – The Fighting Sioux have scored nine goals in the third period.

9 – The Colorado College Tigers have scored nine goals in the first period.

10 – The Fighting Sioux are ranked 10th in the WCHA in scoring.

10 – Aaron Dell is ranked 10th in goals against average (2.87) in the WCHA.

11 – The Colorado College Tigers have allowed 11 goals during the second period

11 – The Fighting Sioux have scored 11 goals on the power play.

12 – The Colorado College Tigers have scored 12 goals on the power play.

15 – Aaron Dell is ranked 15th in save percentage .887 in the WCHA.

Other games in the WCHA: Alaska-Anchorage at Minnesota State, Saint Cloud at Nebraska Omaha, Minnesota at Michigan State, Michigan Tech at Saint Lawrence, Princeton, Miami, Providence at Denver (Denver Cup), Mercyhurst at Wisconsin. Duluth and Bemidji State are idle.

Cross Posted at INSIDE HOCKEY...