Redwing77's Roster Pontifications

by Redwing77

Ok, the first truly successful (by haters' expectations) season since 2000 is over.  And with the afterglow comes the aftermath.  I got to wondering, with the CBS line's dominance, what the team was going to look like next year.  Sorry folks, the CBS line is gone.  Caggiula is a senior and surely Schmaltz and Boeser will sign (more on that later).  So who's coming in and who's leaving?

Let's look:
Here's what I'm doing.  I'm going to list each player who isn't a senior currently by position with a number in parentheses.  The number in parentheses represents my OPINION as to the likelihood of them being an early departure with 1 being almost certainly coming back to 10 which is "only came back on the plane to sign autographs and pack his room up."  Please note that I have no inside information.  This is PURE guesswork on my part.

Goaltenders:
Matej Tomek (3*)
Matt Hyrinkiw (1)
Cam Johnson (2)
Ryan Anderson (1)

Defensemen
Troy Stecher (8)
Tucker Poolman (5)
Keaton Thompson (6)
Paul LaDue (9)
Gage Ausmus (3)
Danys Chartrand (1)
Christian Wolanin (1)
Hayden Shaw (1)

Forwards
Nick Schmaltz (9)
Jonny Simonson (1)
Trevor Olson (1)
Mike Gornall (2*)
Austin Poganski (1)
Brock Boeser (9)
Chris Wilkie (1)
Shane Gersich (1)
Rhett Gardner (1)
Joel Janatuinen (1)
Luke Johnson (1)

The Asterisks
Ok, here's where I deviated a bit.  The two asterisks were on goaltender Matej Tomek and forward Mike Gornall.  If they leave, it would be to transfer, not to go pro.  Gornall is very unlikely, but still... pretty fairly touted forward at the beginning of the season that saw almost no game time.  Tomek only saw game time during exhibitions.  Gornall will probably not transfer because I believe he's a recruited walk on?  But as for Tomek...  this is a kid who is not going to supplant Johnson unless Johnson gets injured.  This means that, assuming Johnson plays well and doesn't turn pro early, Tomek's only shot at being the #1 will come when he's a junior.  For being as highly touted as he was coming into UND, I'm not sure he's going to want to sit around that long.  I'm not sure if UND will push Hyrnkiw down the depth chart because of his strong play this year either.  That's why I'm thinking Tomek may transfer.

The 8s and 9s

I'm told Stecher and LaDue leaving early is almost a certainty.  I can believe LaDue leaving early.  He's older than average and LA was trying hard to get him last year.  Stecher?  He's undrafted and, though he's very good, I'm not sure he's a "jump straight to the NHL" type UFA prospect.  He might come back next year.

Let's face it.  Schmaltz came back to win it all.  They won it all.  Good luck in Chicago, Nick.

Boeser was flat out dominant as a freshman this year.  Only Kyle Conner, imo, did better as a freshman.  I think there's a strong possibility both Boeser and Conner turn pro this offseason.  I think Boeser was a man amongst boys this year and with Vancouver being, well, desperate, they may rush things with Brock.

The outliers
There are three outliers in Keaton Thompson, Tucker Poolman, and Gage Ausmus.  I know that Thompson and Poolman were heavily courted by their teams last year.  I think, now that they've won it all, there will be more pressure brought upon them to sign.  As for Gage, I have no  real reason other than a pure hunch.  I think Gage is the most likely to return of the three.  Poolman next, as he'll probably want to play a year with his brother.

Who's Coming?

Forwards
Cole Smith - As Brad said, he looks to be a Coltyn Sanderson replacement
Ludvig Hoff - Nice forward for Lincoln.  Had 100 points this year.  Not a Boeser or Schmaltz type.  More like perhaps a Wilkie or even Poganski.  Not all that physical but can score.
Tyson Jost - by the hype around him, he's the next Boeser I guess.
Dixon Bowen - Don't know much about him except that he spurned the Fargo Force to join Penticton
Zach Yon - was Fargo's 2nd leading scorer before being traded this year.  With Waterloo, he seemed to me as more of a playmaker rather than scorer.  Schmaltz replacement?

Defensemen:
Colton Poolman - Same as Bowen.  Also younger brother to Tucker Pooman.
Gabe Bast - Don't know much about him either.
Andrew Peski - Played for Tri City.  Didn't notice him much, which might not be a bad thing considering he's a defenseman.
Christian Evers - Played for Lincoln.  He's been injured lately.  Don't know exactly with what.  He's a defensive defenseman.  He seemed pretty solid in that regard.

The "Might be" coming:
Collin Adams (F) and Casey Johnson (D).  Of the two, I think Adams has the best shot at coming in the fall due to numbers.

Summation
UND loses 4 senior forwards and then has another speculated 2 forwards and possibly up to 4 D leaving early for the pros.  There are 5 incoming forwards (1 extra not counting Adams without early departures, 1 short if both Boeser and Schmaltz leave) and 4 defensemen coming in (all extra if there are no early departures).

So what happens if only LaDue and Stecher bolt?  I'm pretty sure that Boeser and Schmaltz will go pro, so perhaps we use that extra slot for one of the 2 extra D coming in.  Does this mean that some of the "less high profile" UND players transfer (such as Gornall and/or Chartrand)?  Maybe it will all be moot.  Or more likely yet, there's another scenario that Berry and crew know about that I don't.

It'll be interesting to see who steps up next year to fill in for the loss of the top line.  I like our depth and goaltending.  It should be interesting... if opening day could just hurry up and get here.