Over Paying Goalies

Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe has a great piece on overpaying goaltenders. Some in the Wild fanbase were uttering some of the same things when the Devan Dubnyk to six-year 26 million dollar contract. So far this season, Dubnyk is (5-1-0, with a 2.35 GAA and a .907 SV%).

Fluto Shinzawa, Boston Globe – The volatility of the position, however, might be enough for GMs Steve Yzerman and Ron Hextall to apply their money elsewhere.

Consider that the Avalanche, Bruins, and Blue Jackets are investing $20.325 million this season in Semyon Varlamov, Tuukka Rask, and Sergei Bobrovsky. In turn, the goalies are providing their employers with save percentages of .861, .854, and .840. They are wretched numbers that are more of a reflection of their teams’ ragged play than their individual performances. But none of the goalies have come close to approaching their previous standards. In Bobrovsky’s case, he helped Jackets coach Todd Richards lose his job.

Varlamov, Rask, and Bobrovsky are not this bad. Their numbers will improve. But the nature of goaltending — peaks and valleys, with defensive support playing a major role — does not make payment of a prime puck-stopper a sure thing.

The difference between a struggling, well-paid ace and an inexpensive backup is minimal when it comes to performance. But it’s a massive gap in cap allocations. In the case of Rask and Jonas Gustavsson ($700,000), it’s $6.3 million, or the price of a very good player.

It’s safer to invest big money and long term to skaters. They don’t have as many in-season variances in their play. Their performance also isn’t influenced as heavily by their teammates.