Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Final 5 Match-Ups (by Donn)

This is it, the last WCHA Final 5 as we have known it for decades.  Three out of last weekend’s first round series went to three games, which is not too surprising, given the depth and talent of the conference as a whole.  I’m looking forward to this long weekend of hockey and hopefully will take a lot of good memories from it. Most of the teams that are not going to St. Paul are done for the year, with the exception of DU.  The Pioneers could get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament; they are currently sitting at #13 in the pairwise.

WCHA FINAL STANDINGS 2012-2013

Team………………………W-L-T………Points
1. St. Cloud St……………18-9-1.……….37
2. Minnesota……………...16-7-2……..…37
3. North Dakota.………….14-7-7………..35
4. Denver…………..……..14-9-5..….......33
5. Wisconsin…....………..13-8-7………...33
6. Minnesota State………16-11-1....…….33
7. Nebraska-Omaha…......14-12-2…....…30
8. Colorado College …….11-13-4..….….26
9. Minnesota-Duluth….….10-13-5……….25
10. Michigan Tech………..8-16-4…..…..20
11. Bemidji State……..…..6-15-7......…..17
12. Alaska-Anchorage…....2-20-6.....…..10

The # numbers below are now the PAIRWISE rankings.

Thursday Games

Colorado College @ #6 North Dakota
Last weekend NoDak ended MTU’s season in three games (5-3W, 2-1L, 6-0W) in Grand Forks and the Tigers beat their archrival Pioneers in three games (5-3L, 2-1W, 4-3W) in Denver.

2012-13 series – Tied wins 2-2-0

The first series was in Colorado Springs Nov30/Dec1 with the Tigers winning the first game (5-3) and UND winning the second in overtime (3-2).  They met for the second series in Grand Forks in mid-January with the Tigers again winning the opening game (4-3) and UND winning the finale (5-3).

UND has a chance to be the first four-peat champion this weekend and it starts with a stiff test in CC.  The Tigers have the offensive power to compete with anyone in the league; the big question is their defense and goaltending.  The same could be said about UND, they too have has some blips in their own zone too.  Both have a short week after playing three games (Fri/Sat/Sun) and then a short rest and travel before this Thursday night game.  The Tigers need to keep winning to extend their season, UND could lose and still make the NCAA tournament.  I’m going with UND in this game, since they have been getting more consistent play in the net.  NODAK WINS
(I also want them to win so we all get to see another UND/UM game.)

#9 Minnesota State @ #16 Wisconsin
Last weekend the Mavericks took out the UNO Mavericks in three games (4-3Wot, 2-1L, 3-1W) in Mankato and the Badgers ended the UMD Bulldogs season by sweeping them (3-1, 4-1) in Madison.

2012-13 series – Tied 2-2-0

The first series was in Madison on Nov23/24 with the Mavericks sweeping the series (4-2, 4-2).  They met for the second series in Mankato in mid-January with the Badgers returning the favor in dramatic fashion, by sweeping the Mavericks in overtime in both games (4-3ot, 2-1ot).

The Badgers have clawed their way back in the NCAA tournament picture, now they are firmly on the bubble with their #16 rank.  The Mavericks would be in the NCAA tournament if it started this weekend, but if get some wins this weekend they can move up the rankings and improve their seeding. 

This game I’m not sure about who is going to win, I don’t have a feeling right away for one team or the other.  Both are playing well and need/want to advance to Friday’s game against SCSU.  Even with UW being the “home” team in this game, I’m going to go with the “visitors” for the win, in overtime.  MAVERICKS WIN

Friday Games

#12 St. Could St.
Last weekend the Huskies swept the Seawolves (6-1, 5-1) in St. Cloud.

Season Series
vs MSUM – SCSU wins 2-0-0
vs UW – Tied 1-1-0

Since the Huskies are the top seed they will “host” the winner from Thursday’s MSUM/UW play-in game.

If my prediction from Thursday hold true, the Huskies will be facing in-state foe Mankato for the right to advance to the championship game.  SCSU had to settle for “sharing” the MacNaughton Cup and now will want the Broadmoor Trophy all to themselves.  The Huskies have not captured the playoff title since 2001 and the Mavericks have never hoisted either piece of hardware.  HUSKIES WIN

#2 Minnesota
Last weekend the Gophers swept the Beavers (2-1ot, 4-3) in Minneapolis.

Since the Gophers are the second seed they will “host” the winner of the CC/UND from Thursday’s play-in game.

Season Series
vs UND – UM wins 1-0-1
vs CC – UM wins 1-0-1

Again, if my Thursday predictions hold true, the Gophers will face long, long, time rival UND in the evening tilt at the Xcel Center.  Last year these team clashed in a semi-final game, remember… the Gophers staked themselves to a 3-0 lead, UND called a time out, and then rattled off 6 unanswered goals for a 6-3 win.  (Then UM and UND met a week later again at the Xcel Center in the NCAA tournament with the UM winning.)  I don’t think we will get that kind of game this time around, but who knows, that’s why they play the games.  I’m inclined this time around to give the nod to the Gophers in this game, to set-up a rubber match with the Huskies.  GOPHERS WIN

Saturday - CHAMPIONSHIP Game

Well this as far as I’m allowed to stretch my predictions.  We’ll know by the end of Friday if I’m even close to correct.  But if I am, it’s a SCSU/UM game for the Broadmoor trophy, a title that cannot be shared, and the auto-bid for the NCAA tournament.  I’m thinking the Gophers might be spent emotionally if they beat UND the evening before.  The Gophers are a pretty solid lock on a number one seed, whereas the Huskies could use another quality win to solidify their spot in the tourney.  HUSKIES WIN

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