Sunday, January 16, 2011

Why Yale Is #1 in the Statistical Polls

Our friend Goon has expressed some skepticism about the Yale Bulldogs being a legitimate #1 team. You may have noticed that.

Yale has played the 31st easiest schedule while UND has played the toughest overall. We even have more wins then them. I'd think that fact alone would get some #1 votes.

But then on the other hand Yale is #1 in the Pairwise. That's hard to argue with since it's statistical in nature and you know, statistics is hard.

Right now we only have one comparison with Yale and that's the RPI. The problem with the RPI is that Yale has this asterisk thing by their RPI score:

Excluded Yale's 1 wins over Colgate because their game RPIs (0.5694) would have lowered Yale's RPI (0.6057) Excluded Yale's 1 wins over Sacred Heart because their game RPIs (0.5637) would have lowered Yale's RPI (0.6057) Excluded Yale's 1 wins over Holy Cross because their game RPIs (0.5886) would have lowered Yale's RPI (0.6057) Excluded Yale's 1 wins over Harvard because their game RPIs (0.5965) would have lowered Yale's RPI (0.6057)


There are four other team with one exclusion each. Yale's schedule is so weak that they have as many exclusions as the rest of the 57 teams put together.

I'd like to know what Yale's real RPI is. But the problem is, statistics are hard.